Review and predicting the future insights facing Iran, according to historical macro trends

Sakineh Karami, Davood Aghaee, Hasan Aslannzadeh, Soghra Kazemi

Abstract


Predicting future trends in Iran is very difficult which also fail to be realized in most of cases due to high acceleration of international developments and conflict of major powers in the region. Unlike many other regions of the developing world, Iran is one of the most stable and safest regions of the world. Although nearly three decades have passed since the end of the Cold War, the regional conflicts, particularly the Arab-Israeli conflict have not ended yet. So unlike other developing regions, because of oil reserves and access of Islamic Republic of Iran to peaceful nuclear energy and also the growth of Islamic fundamentalism as a threat to the interests of the West, especially the United States have created a situation that it is predicted that the decline process of U.S.A's influence in the region has begun and probably, U.S.A will not be the only trans-regional factor affecting the region in the next decade. The same issue has provided a chance for greater Iran’s role in the region as a replacement for the power of the U.S.A. Moving toward more democratic governments in the Arab world, which in many cases is accompanied with the empowerment of the Shiites and realization of their rights, will continue with greater acceleration in the coming years. Democratization in the Arab World reduces tensions between Iran and the Arabic states for establishing better relations with them. Empowerment of Shiites will also provide Iran with greater maneuverability in this atmosphere.


Keywords


Iran, the future of Iran, U.S.A, the Middle East.

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