Global financial crisis impact on gold market in Iran

Karim MH (Karim Koshteh)

Abstract


Monetary policies are the most important macro-economic tools and acquiring enough knowledge about the method of their effect is considered as an important step in national and regional planning and development. At the present study, the effect of monetary shocks in price of Iranian coin has been investigated by using the time series data available for the years 1984 till 2014. In this regard, GARCH technique was used for modeling and calculation of the monetary shock. Similarly, the relationship of monetary shocks variable, the price of gold through world, oil revenue and foreign exchange rate with the price of coin in Iran was analyzed. The results showed that the variable of foreign exchange rate has adverse effects and the variables of monetary shock, the price of gold through world, oil revenue have direct and meaningful effect on the variable of price of Iranian coin. Therefore, the government by correct planning is able to inhibit crisis and shock in transactions especially coin and gold.

 


Keywords


monetary shocks, GARCH, ARDL.

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